Do you know who will win the football Champions League this year? If you do know or have enough reasonable doubt, then you can make some money from it. Almost all reputable betting houses offer to their customers to try guessing who will be the winner in the Champions League. Not only that, but they offer great betting odds on it.
As long as you don’t bet on Barcelona or Real Madrid, as these two teams are the main favourites of the bookies and the odds offered for their ultimate victory is not particularly high – 3.5 for Barcelona and 4.5 for Real Madrid.
These are really the two big favourites for the trophy, but don’t forget that it was the same last year, but respectively Chelsea and Bayern Munich ousted them in the semi-finals. Chelsea’s chances of duplicating the title are not particularly large. The bookmakers are offering odds of 15 for this to happen. For Bayern the betting odds are just 10. With the same strength are evaluated also Manchester United and Manchester City.
Then in the layout of the bookies for winning the Champions League we see teams of Juventus and PSG, both teams could bring in 17 betting odds for those who bet on them. Just after the most powerful French and Italian teams ranks Arsenal from London, whose chances are rated at 19.
If you think it is possible this year to have a surprise in the Champions League, then what about the proposal for the tournament title to go to Scotland and Celtic for example. This would provide you betting odds of 501. A bit less than the odds for the Danish team of Nordsealand, whose victory would bring 1501 rate.
However, if you are expecting a surprise in the Champions League, remember that from 1991 until now none of these teams made the surprise. Maybe we can make some exceptions with Dortmund in 1997 and Liverpool with their memorable match against AC Milan in 2005.
A few months ago I read a very interesting betting article that describes how to compile betting ratings through which to make predictions for football matches. Unfortunately, the article didn’t describe how the rating is calculated, because they want to keep the information for themselves, but it was explained that the main thing in the rating is the attacking play of both teams. According to them, the attack was the factor that makes the difference between winning and losing in a football match.
I admit, I don’t have much experience in compiling such betting strategies, but I decided to do something and see what will happen. Since it is about attacking football I thought I could start with a simple excel table, where to store information about goal attempts each team creates and respectively the goals the teams managed to score. In the same table I collect the opposite information – goal attempts allowed by a team and the number of received goals.
Since there is a difference in the presentation of the teams at home and away, I decided to divide the betting research into two parts. When playing a match, I consider only the matches as host for the host team and only the away matches for the visitors.
Apart from this, as the teams naturally are not in the same form during the season, I take into account only the last four matches that the teams have played at home or away.
What is next in this betting system? I calculate the number of goal attempts a team has made versus the average number of their opponent. By doing this I get a number above or below a unit. When the team has created more goal attempts than the average number for their opponent then the number is above 1. When less than the average for the opponent, then the number is below 1. Then I multiply the result to the average goals attempts that the team created in a match and get the most probable number of goal attempts the team will have.
In this betting system follows the multiplying of the above number to the number of goal attempts a team needs to score a goal. By doing this I finally get the probable goals that a team will make in the match. I turn the probable goals into betting odds for a home win, a draw and an away win and I find out if there is a value in this betting prediction.
I’m still in a very early stage of developing this betting system, but when I have more information I will write again.
Liverpool started season 2012/2013 in the Premier League with very serious ambitions, but after the fifth round the team is on the 18th place with one point less than their opponent in this round – Norwich. So far Liverpool have managed to get only two draws and lost three times thus recording the weakest start so far in their history in the Premier League.
However, this has its explanation. Liverpools schedule for the first five matches was really hard playing with the champions of Manchester City, the second of the last season Manchester United, the traditionally strong team of Arsenal and two very serious teams such Sunderland and WBA. The combination of the heavy program and the change of the manager who tried to introduce his own principles against these rivals proved to be too heavy for the team.
Anyway, Brendan Rodgers has already had his two months as Liverpool’s manager and it is the time for the team to go up. Frankly speaking, the players didn’t play badly. In the next three rounds Liverpool travels to Norwich, playing at home with Stoke and Reading. These are the mandatory three victories that will surely mend the situation at the club.
Norwich hasn’t had any win in the Premier League yet, but in contrast, the team has three draws. The team did not play badly, but they play just in the standards for a team from the second half of the standings. What can be said with certainty is that the players of Norwich will do everything possible to put up a strong resistance to Liverpool, but the question is – Are they capable of doing something big in the match?
My opinion is that it is unlikely. Moreover, the statistics is not in their favor. Norwich have hosted Liverpool twice in the Premier League, both games were lost by the hosts. Last year Liverpool won with 0-3 with three goals from Luis Suarez. I see no reason this to change somehow.
The betting odds for a Liverpool win is 1.8, which is too small for the visit of the 18th against the 17th in the Premier League, but the bookies are not stupid at all and they know what will happen on Saturday.
OverTime push with Vane Kanali
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